Tuesday, June 24, 2014

WSOP 1500 PLO8 MTT at Rio

4500 starting stack with 25/25 blinds and 60 min. levels

Table Reads by the time hero's first hand was played.

1 H. (Hispanic from Houston) - eventually figured out we played together in LAPC
2 Hero
3 Ceegee (late registrant) - younger guy
4 old guy with British accent
5 middle aged guy, seemed to be a tighter player
6 middle aged guy
7 younger guy?
8 middle aged Asian player from Binion's PLO8 the day before (seemed to be talkative, even with a little meh quality strategy).
9 "Joe" - a middle aged and likely competent player. Seat 1 mentioned he played SNGs with player.

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Hero played 1 hand in first level.

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Hero dealt in UTG: Ad Ts 5s 2d

Preflop:
Hero raises to 75
1 fold
Vil4: calls
other players fold

(2 players - 200 in pot)
Flop: Qd Td Ks As 8h
Hero: bets 125
Vil4: raises to 300
Hero: calls

(2 players - 800 in pot)
Turn: Qd Td Ks As 8h
Hero: checks
Vil4: bets 600
Hero: thinks for a while, then calls

(2 players - 2000 in pot)
River: Qd Td Ks As 8h
Hero: checks
Vil4: bets 1525
Hero: folds

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard with strong two way hand with nut suit.
Flop: Bet/call seems best. Hero has gutshot to same broadway + nut flush draw.
Turn: Hero's equity is definitely ok to call, especially if villain's range is [broadway straight (80%), top/middle set, and some small straight+redraws]. Problem is that hero doesn't really have fold equity (plus table seemed soft at the time). Thus, is a flip really worth it just to increase variance and raise w/ zero fold equity? Not really...
River: Sigh, hero has to c/f as villain is repping nut straight the whole way.

PPT:
Unrolled Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation ?

Before the Flop 600,000 trials (Randomized) Hand Equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
ad ts 5s 2d 50.74% 197,783 242,163 16,749 240,940 41,488
aj 49.26% 191,142 341,088 16,749 43,574 41,488

On the Flop 7,880,200 trials (Exhaustive)
board: qdtdksHand Equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
ad ts 5s 2d 45.35% 3,285,137 3,285,137 576,322 0 0
aj 54.65% 4,018,741 4,018,741 576,322 0 0

On the Turn 249,840 trials (Exhaustive)
board: qdtdksasHand Equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
ad ts 5s 2d 47.10% 112,562 112,562 10,242 0 0
aj 52.90% 127,036 127,036 10,242 0 0

or

Unrolled Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation ?

Before the Flop 600,000 trials (Randomized) Hand Equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
ad ts 5s 2d 53.39% 222,730 252,067 9,119 276,003 23,204
aj, kk, qq 46.61% 183,496 338,814 9,119 30,315 23,204

On the Flop 12,118,780 trials (Exhaustive)
board: qdtdksHand Equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
ad ts 5s 2d 42.46% 4,830,178 4,830,178 632,114 0 0
aj, kk, qq 57.54% 6,656,488 6,656,488 632,114 0 0

On the Turn 447,640 trials (Exhaustive)
board: qdtdksasHand Equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
ad ts 5s 2d 45.75% 197,634 197,634 14,332 0 0
aj, kk, qq 54.25% 235,674 235,674 14,332 0 0

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Hero limp/called a raise with Ah Ad Kd Qx, but folded on Qh 8h 7s flop.

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Hero's stack: ~3150

Hero dealt in BB: As 8c 5c 2s

Preflop:
(folds to seat 7)
Vil7 (HJ): raises to 150
Vil8 (CO): calls
But: folds
SB: folds
Hero (BB): calls

(3 players - 475 in pot)
Flop: Kd Js 4s 3h 6c
Vil7: bets 400
Vil8: folds
Hero: calls

(2 players - 1275 in pot)
Turn: Kd Js 4s 3h 6c
Vil7: bets 1000
Hero: raises to 3050 total (all in)
Vil7: calls

Vil7: Shows JJxx (like JJ94)
River: Kd Js 4s 3h 6c

Hero doubles up to 6100

Analysis:
Preflop: This hand could be squeezed, but fold equity seemed low.
Flop: Hero has enough equity to call with naked flush draw and backdoor low draw against villain who might be c-betting too much.
Turn: Hero decides to let villain double barrel and c/r AI to hopefully maximize fold equity. Villain may fold some top pair hands (and other air hands) that villain was willing to bet/fold.

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Hero dealt in LP: Ac Ad Qc Js

Preflop:
(folds to seat 7)
Vil7: raises to 150
(folds to hero)
Hero: calls

(2 players - 375 in pot)
Flop: Kc Qd 3h
Vil7: bets 300
Hero: calls

(2 players - 975 in pot)
Turn: Kc Qd 3h 3s
both players check

(2 players - in pot)
River: Kc Qd 3h 3s 7h
both players check

Villain shows AA88 and pot is chopped.

Analysis:
Preflop: Hero can flat and hope for a multiway pot. Reraising given both players have ~3k+ effective stacks is a bit spewy.
Flop: Hero doesn't fold overpair when villain could be c-betting A2x or naked top pairs.
Turn: Hero has best 2 pair on a locked down board. Hero tries to get to showdown cheaply.
River: Same plan as turn

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Hero wins 2 pots uncontested on flop in MW pots.

Hero dealt in MP?: Ax Jh 5h 2x

Preflop:
1 player limps
hero limps behind
another player limps
BB: checks

(4 players - ~450 in pot)
Flop: J64 rainbow (hero does not have bdfd)
(checks to hero)
Hero: bets 300
(other players fold)

Analysis:
Preflop: A naked A2 w/ backup low is ok to limp behind.
Flop: TPTK, gutshot straight draw and ok low counterfeit protection. Easy bet for value/semi-bluff.

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Hero dealt: 5x 4s 3x 2s

Preflop:
UTG: raises to 200
Hero: calls
SB: calls
BB: calls

(4 players - 800 in pot)
Flop: 7x 3d Ad
UTG: checks
Hero bets 600
(other players fold)

Analysis:
Preflop: A low rundown is a good hand to play a flop.
Flop: Dream flop (sans hero having flush draw). This is an easy bet w/ low wrap (hoping Axxx calls).

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Observed hands against 2 tougher PLO8 players (seat 9 and 1) based on how they were playing (and their mentioning of playing PLO8 SNGs the day before).
1. 9/SB: raises to 200
1/BB: calls

Flop: Jh 8d 6d
9/SB: check
1/BB: bets 150
9/SB: call

Turn: (no board sadly :()
9/SB: check
1/BB: check

River: (no board sadly :()
9/SB: bet 400
1/BB: calls

9: shows A753 no flush draw to get money back with low/freeroll chances
1: shows pair

2. later on when button on seat 1 after seat 9 raised preflop/seat 1 calls
Flop: Tx Jd 3x
Vil9: checks
Vil1: checks

Turn: Tx Jd 3x Jh 4s
Vil9: bets 550
Vil1: calls

River: Tx Jd 3x Jh 4s
Vil9: bets 600
Vil1: folds
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Hero dealt in LP: Ax Tx Ts 3s

Preflop:
(folds to Vil8)
Vil8 (MP): raises to 300
(folds to hero)
Hero: calls 300

(2 players - 750 in pot)
Flop: Ad 9d 4c
both players check

(2 players - 750 in pot)
Turn: Ad 9d 4c 2c
Vil8: checks
Hero: bets 350
Vil8: calls

(2 players - 1450 in pot)
River: Ad 9d 4c 2c 6c
Vil8: checks
Hero: bets 675
Vil8: calls

Vil8: shows AA3x
Hero shows A3xx

Hero gets quartered.

Analysis:
Preflop: This is an ok call behind PFR.
Flop: Hero checks here with anot a lot of equity, but looking to steal if needed.
Turn: Hero decided to barrel villain off pot since board was getting more scary for villain.
River: Hero fires second barrel. Hero can get villain to fold a ton of weak hands (top 2 p/no low, etc...). Unfortunately, villain calls with top set + live 3 (which is kinda leaky)...

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Hero dealt in HJ: Ad Qd 9d 2x

Preflop:
Vil8 (UTG): limps
(folds to hero)
Hero: limps
(folds to SB)
SB: completes
BB: checks

(4 players - 400 in pot)
Flop: Qd 9h 3s Ah
(all players check)

(4 players - 400 in pot)
Turn: Qd 9h 3s Ah
Vil6: bets 225
Hero: raises to 900
Vil6: thinks for a while, then folds

Vil8: "Is this another big semi-bluff"? Then folds.

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard to limp A2 suited.
Flop: Honestly, this is probably a bet on the flop MW, but a slowplay could be ok sometimes. Hero had no reason to try to hope an aggressive player would bet.
Turn: As played, pretty straightforward turn raise for value with top 2 pair/no low. Seat 8 made comment from previous hand where raise = huge semi-bluff.

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Hero limp folded on flop with 5432r on 8d 6d 6x in small blind.

Hero dealt in CO: 8632r.

Preflop:
(folds to hero)
Hero: raises to 225
(other players fold)
BB: calls

(2 players - 500 in pot)
Flop: Ah Ad 4d
BB: checks
Hero: bets 350
BB: folds

Analysis:
Preflop: A decent open in LP to steal blinds/play post-flop IP in raised pot
Flop: Hero bet/calls. has best semi-bluff draw & hero can rep an ace in this spot.

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Hero develops read on player 5. Player 5 seems to be playing tight and folding a lot on turn/river.
Player 5 seemed to be looser preflop though.

6700 at 100 200. Most pots won w/o showdown.

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Level 5:
Hero won blinds when raising preflop when folded to hero in HJ: Ah Jx 8x 3h
Hero won blinds when raising preflop when folded to hero in HJ+1: Ac Ax 8c 4x

Preflop:
Hero dealt: Ax As Ks 2x
Vil9 (Button): raises to 450
Vil1: folds
Hero: calls

(2 players - 1000 in pot)
Flop: 7h 9x 4h
both players check

(2 players - in pot)
Turn: 7h 9x 4h Th
both players check

(2 players - in pot)
River: 7h 9x 4h Th 5d
Hero: bets 750
Vil9: folds

Analysis:
Preflop: In blind/button battle, it's probably best to raise preflop with only 30BBs. But, since villain is likely thinking player...hero's hand is kind of face up as AAw or AK2/AK3/AQ2/AQ3 and hero will likely have to play turns (as stack won't be in completely). TBH, it's a probably a spew not to 3b one of the best PLO8 starting hands and play aggressively rather than "balance" and keep pot small even though hero has only ~30BBs.
Flop: Hero plans to c/c
Turn: Bad turn card for hero as flush completes. Hero probably isn't folding to a single turn bet though as villain likely would have bet flush draws on flop.
River: Hero bet/calls for value.

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Level 6:

Hero dealt in CO: Ah Qh 5x 4x

Preflop:
(folds to hero in CO)
Hero: raises to 650
(folds to seat 5)
Vil5 (BB): calls

(2 players - 1450 in pot)
Flop: 6s 5s Kx
both players check

(2 players - 1450 in pot)
Turn: 6s 5s Kx Qx
(2 players - 3150 in pot)
River: 6s 5s Kx Qx 2s
Vil5: checks
Hero: bets 1900
Vil5: thinks for a while, then folds

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard open in late position
Flop: Hero's hand strength is weak. A check back is pretty standard (although it may have worked considering Seat 5 was nitty, although more on turn/river than flop.
Turn: Hero's betting 2p for value.
River: Hero's betting for value to get villain to call with worse 2p/no low, 3rd nut low/1p, etc...

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Hero's stack starting level 7 (after dinner break):
7700 @ 200/400

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Level 7:
Vil4: seemed to be tighter middle aged player and didn't seem to show any aggression in ~2 hours of play prior to dinner.

Two consecutive hands after dinner:

Preflop:
Hero dealt in HJ?: Ax 8h 5x 2h
(folds to hero)
Hero: raises to 900
Vil4: calls

(2 players - 2400 in pot)
Flop: Qx Jd 9d
both players check

(2 players - 2400 in pot)
Turn: Qx Jd 9d 4x
Hero bets 1700
Vil4: folds

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard
Flop: Hero could bet, but decides to wait and try to get more info on the turn
Turn: Hero confirms weakness and bets. Villain folds. Bet size was probably too big (1400 does same purpose...)

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Preflop:
Hero dealt in UTG+2?: Ax Kh 8h 2h
Hero: raises to 900
Vil4?: calls

(2 players - 2400 in pot)
Flop: Jx Jx Kx (rainbow)
both players check

(2 players - 2400 in pot)
Turn: Jx Jx Kx 5x (rainbow)
both players check

(2 players - 2400 in pot)
River: Jx Jx Kx 5x Jx
Hero: Bets 1200 on river
Vil4: calls

Vil4: shows AAQT

Hero decides to bluff and for smaller price

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Hero is moved about 20 min. after dinner (there were 2-3 tables in the section after dinner).
Unfortunately, hero has to pay blinds immediately upon sitting down :(

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2nd Table Reads (Blue section, Table 6)

1 Hero
2 originally, guy with super short stack and got quartered repeatedly before busting and was mad about players touching his cards
eventually quiet player - seemed a near/reserved player
3 rotated a couple different people; younger player reading book
4 young (20/30) something player with sunglasses & Texans hat; seemed to gather a bunch of chips towards latter half of MTT
5 younger/middle aged asian player - seemed tighter
6 "Steve" - a European guy who hero's played with a number of PLO8 MTTs in the past.
7 bigger European guy with an unusual chip tower
8 quiet Caucasian player with a hoodie
9 young/middle aged Asian player? non-professional; seemed to be quiet

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Hero has ~4000 in chips.
This hand occurred about 10-12 hands into my new table.
Vil2: Quieter "nice guy" who got moved onto table. Vil2 has ~20-25k in chips.

Hero dealt in UTG+1: Ad Qd 8x 3x
(folds to hero)

Preflop:
Hero raised near pot: 2100
Vil2: calls

(2 players - ~5100 in pot)
Flop: 4x 9d Td
Hero: bets all in (~2000)
Vil2: calls

Vil2: shows Ac Qx Tx 5x

Board: 4x 9d Td Jx Kd

Hero scoops and doubles up on the freeroll.
Hero's stack: 10,500

Analysis:
Preflop: Hero's never sure if "potting" with short stack is ever right play. It's probably better to just keep raise sizes small and let unobservant opponents not realize hero is "short stacked" and "trying to get it in".
Flop: Hero's betting almost any flop with ~1/2 psb left.

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About 1 rotation passes...
Hero lost some calling a preflop raise (multiway) with As Jx 8x 2s but folded on bad flop to turn aggression.

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Dealt to Hero in HJ: AQ92 (A9 suited)

Preflop:
(folds to hero)
Hero (HJ): raises to 2100
(folds)
Vil6 (BB): reraises all in (~5000)
Hero: calls

Seat 6 shows AA66 single suited (no hearts)

(2 players - Seat 6 AI)
Board: 9x Th Qh 6x 4x

Analysis:
Preflop: This is ok to raise/call. Hero would prefer 3 low cards (A-Broadway-2/3), but this seemed fine too.

After the hand, seat 6 said "I don't think either of us can fold with 15BB."
Hero's stack: 1100

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Dealt to hero in UTG+2: AQ22 (A2 suited)

Preflop:
(folds to hero)
Hero: raises all in to 1100
(folds to BB)
Vil7 (BB): calls

Vil7: shows AQ65 (A5 suited in diamonds)
Board: 3d 8d 9d Tx Tx
Analysis:
Preflop: An argument can be made for waiting 2-3 hands to see if hero can find a better spot. IE: 3 low cards...but, this may/can be ok.

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Hero out around 250. 117 pay.

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Summary:
1. The field seemed soft overall.
2. Hero should probably consider 3-betting more often in spots. Hero should also try to exploit players more often post-flop.
3. Reads were spot on for the most part.

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