My recent NLHE live play has been marked by many downswings. I've had a rather extended one, to be honest at 2-5 (5-6 sessions). I generally fear that it's me playing bad, not reacting well to the new players, and not adjusting quickly enough based on their play.
(I've had long downswings online (5-6+ sessions), but it's definitely a combination of leaks + downward variance swing.)
Problem with variance/downswings:
I'm never 100% sure if it's always my mistakes or just variance.
It's not so much the downswings (that's why I have a bankroll), but it's more that I fear I might overadjust for leaks and such.
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Poker Career Direction (Online and Live)
After my return from LV, I've talked with some of my more experienced poker friends regarding career direction in the live/online and cash game (and MTT) realm. I did not play much NLHE cash during my trip...
Rumor has it that draw might get a small resurgence as Full Tilt is likely going to introduce draw games (PL 5 card draw, 2-7 triple draw, 2-7 single draw, badugi, and a N-game mix) in coordination with the FTOPS XVIII starting in a week or so. This has caused me to think more about my direction.
(+s are positives; -s are negatives).
Here's my current thoughts with their feedback:
PLO8
+1. The best chance to get a WSOP/FTOPS/WCOOP/SCOOP bracelet and/or huge MTT score since the game is not that popular.
-1. The game will probably never get that popular. Thus, new "fish" will not be showing up as often. It will become 90+% reg infested by the time I get into higher small stakes cash games.
-2. Live cash games are practically non-existent. MTTs are a rare occurrence.
NLHE
+1. Best table selection: most number of options for live games (everyone is playing NLHE currently).
-1. To reach equivalent stakes (assuming variance was equal) requires a lot more knowledge. NLHE is much more of a "solved game".
-2. By not spending 100% time focused on NLHE cash, I'm definitely moving up at a slower pace...
PLO
+1. The game is definitely not as "solved". The learning curve is definitely less to move up the ladder.
-1. Live games tend to be rare.
-2. Live variance is ...mentally challenging.
Mixed Limit Games (LO8, S/8, etc...)
+1. The fields do seem to be fairly inexperienced, especially in mixed limit games (ie: 8 game mix for example - 2-7TD, HORSE, NLHE, PLO).
-1. There aren't too many games which would be worthwhile in terms of possible live hourly rate. 10/20 and 15/30 games aren't too common and are likely less juicy compared to the equivalent 2-5 big bet game at NLHE/PLO/PLO8.
-2. Spending a lot of time on my Stud Hi game, isn't probably going to earn me a lot of money. LHE might be worthwhile, but it's the same concern as -1.
Rumor has it that draw might get a small resurgence as Full Tilt is likely going to introduce draw games (PL 5 card draw, 2-7 triple draw, 2-7 single draw, badugi, and a N-game mix) in coordination with the FTOPS XVIII starting in a week or so. This has caused me to think more about my direction.
(+s are positives; -s are negatives).
Here's my current thoughts with their feedback:
PLO8
+1. The best chance to get a WSOP/FTOPS/WCOOP/SCOOP bracelet and/or huge MTT score since the game is not that popular.
-1. The game will probably never get that popular. Thus, new "fish" will not be showing up as often. It will become 90+% reg infested by the time I get into higher small stakes cash games.
-2. Live cash games are practically non-existent. MTTs are a rare occurrence.
NLHE
+1. Best table selection: most number of options for live games (everyone is playing NLHE currently).
-1. To reach equivalent stakes (assuming variance was equal) requires a lot more knowledge. NLHE is much more of a "solved game".
-2. By not spending 100% time focused on NLHE cash, I'm definitely moving up at a slower pace...
PLO
+1. The game is definitely not as "solved". The learning curve is definitely less to move up the ladder.
-1. Live games tend to be rare.
-2. Live variance is ...mentally challenging.
Mixed Limit Games (LO8, S/8, etc...)
+1. The fields do seem to be fairly inexperienced, especially in mixed limit games (ie: 8 game mix for example - 2-7TD, HORSE, NLHE, PLO).
-1. There aren't too many games which would be worthwhile in terms of possible live hourly rate. 10/20 and 15/30 games aren't too common and are likely less juicy compared to the equivalent 2-5 big bet game at NLHE/PLO/PLO8.
-2. Spending a lot of time on my Stud Hi game, isn't probably going to earn me a lot of money. LHE might be worthwhile, but it's the same concern as -1.
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