Monday, February 6, 2017

365 PLO at Potawatomi Casino

10000 starting chips at 25/50 blinds and 30 min. levels.

First Table Reads (Table 48):

1 young/middle aged guy with SF cap
2 mid aged guy with blue hoodie
3 hero
4 old guy with cap
5 young guy with cap
6 [empty]
7 mid aged Asian with earbuds
8 young Asian with glasses
9 younger/middle aged guy

---------------
Hero late registered during level 2.
There were 40 entries by the time hero registered.

---------------
Level 2 - Blinds: 50/100

Hero dealt in HJ: As Ad 9s 5s

(8 handed: Seat 6 is empty.)
Preflop:
Vil9 (UTG): calls
(folds to Hero)
Hero (HJ): calls
Vil4 (CO): calls
Vil5 (But): calls
Vil7 (SB): calls
Vil8 (BB): checks

(6 players - 600 in pot)
Flop: Kc Jc 8s
Vil7: checks
Vil8: checks
Vil9: checks
Hero: checks
Vil4: bets 600
Vil5: folds
Vil7: calls
Vil8: folds
Vil9: raises pot (3600 total)
Hero: folds
Vil4: calls
Vil7: calls

(3 players - 11400 in pot)
Turn: Kc Jc 8s 2c
Vil7: bets pot
Vil8: calls
Vil4: raises all in
Vil7: calls
Vil8: calls

(3 players - ~34200 in pot, 1 player all in)
River: Kc Jc 8s 2c 2d
Vil7: checks
Vil8: bets all in (8k)
Vil7: calls

Vil7: shows Qc Qx Jc 2x (thought had flush only, then looked back at hand and saw boat)
Vil8: shows Kd Kh Qd 4h
Vil4: shows Ac Ax 6c 4x

Vil7: eliminates 2 opponents

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard. Hero has weak AAxx single suited in likely multiway pot.
Flop: Standard. Hero has little equity with overpair and backdoor nut flush draw.

---------------
Hero dealt in HJ: As Ad 9s 5s

(7 handed: Seats 4 and 6 are empty.)
Preflop:
Vil2 (UTG): calls
Hero (UTG+1): calls
Vil5 (HJ): calls
Vil7 (CO): calls
Vil8 (But): folds
Vil9 (SB): calls
Vil1 (BB): checks

(6 players - 600 in pot)
Flop: Kd Qd 7x
Vil9: checks
Vil1: checks
Vil2: checks
Hero: checks
Vil5: checks
Vil7: bets 600 (2k left)
Vil9: raises pot (2400 total)
(other players fold)
Vil7: calls

(Hero did not write down hands that were shown down.)
Board: Kd Qd 7x Kh 5c

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard.
Flop: Standard. Hero has little equity in MW pot.

---------------
Vil7 does not bust this hand, but busts in the next hand.

---------------
Level 3 - Blinds: 75/150

Hero dealt in BB: Jx Tc 9c 8c

(6 handed: Seats 4, 6, and 7 are empty.)
Preflop:
(folds to Vil9)
Vil9 (CO): raises to 400
(folds to Hero)
Hero (BB): calls

(2 players - 875 in pot)
Flop: Kh Qh 4s
Hero: checks
Vil9: bets 600
Hero: calls

(2 players - 2075 in pot)
Turn: Kh Qh 4s Qd
Hero: checks
Vil9: checks

(2 players - 2075 in pot)
Turn: Kh Qh 4s Qd 9c
Hero: checks
Vil9: checks

Hero: shows hand
Vil9: mucks

Analysis:
Preflop: A 3-bet preflop is definitely good as well in a blind battle. Hero regains initiative. A call allows for deeper stacks. In this spot, hero decides to call.
Flop: Hero decides to continue to bluff some outs (usually flush cards) with aggression, donk bet if straight comes, etc...
Turn: This is not a great card for hero. Hero may decide to bluff river depending on equity. Hero's mistake in hand was not thinking ahead about various scenarios on the turn.
River: Hero gets showdown value with made straight. Can hero value bet? It is possible, but would a naked Qxxx call? Hero decides there is not much value in betting, so hero decides to check/call and let villain bluff air and value bet stronger hands.

---------------
Hero dealt in SB: Qx Jx Tx 9x (rainbow)

(7 handed: Seats 4 and 8 are empty.)
Preflop:
(folds to Vil1)
Vil1 (CO): raises to 400
Vil2 (But): folds
Hero (SB): calls
Vil5 (BB): calls

(3 players - 1200 in pot)
Flop: Qs Ts 4c
(all players check)

(3 players - 1200 in pot)
Turn: Qs Ts 4c 5s
(all players check)

(3 players - 1200 in pot)
River: Qs Ts 4c 5s 4d
Hero: checks
Vil5: checks
Vil1: bets 1100
Hero: calls
Vil5: folds

Vil5: shows Ks 7s 5s 3x
Hero: mucks

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard.
Flop: Standard. Hero has decent equity, but not great enough equity to necessarily want to get into hand.
Turn: Hero basically wants to get to showdown as cheap as possible with essentially a bluff catcher.
River: Hero decides to check/call and bluff catch. Vil1's bet on the end can be a weak bluff.

---------------
Level 4 - Blinds: 100/200

Hero dealt in HJ: As Ax Ks Qx

(7 handed: Seats 4 and 8 are empty.)
Preflop:
Vil5 (UTG): calls
(folds to Vil1)
Vil1 (But): calls
Vil2 (SB): calls
Hero (BB): checks

(4 players - 800 in pot)
Flop: Td 6d 4x
Vil2: checks
Hero: checks
Vil5: checks
Vil1: bets 400
Vil2: calls
Hero: folds
Vil5: folds

(2 players - 1600 in pot)
Turn: Td 6d 4x 5x
Vil2: checks
Vil1: checks

(2 players - 1600 in pot)
River: Td 6d 4x 5x Kd
Vil2: checks
Vil1: bets 600
Vil2: folds

Analysis:
Preflop: Hero can raise in this spot, but will this turn hero's hand faceup? Hero's stack is also relatively deep, so there is less value in raising and being OOP with a relatively deep stack.
Flop: Standard. Hero has naked overpair.

---------------
Hero's stack at Level 5 break (Blinds: 150/300): 8375

---------------
Updated First Table Reads (Table 48):

1 young/middle aged guy with SF cap
2 mid aged guy with blue hoodie, busted and re-entered in exact same seat before busting again
3 hero
4 (level 4) - older guy with grey hair, said that he's won a couple PLO MTTs in Chicago area
5 young guy with cap
6 [empty]
7 (level 3) - older African American guy with cap
8 (level 4) - mid aged guy with slicked back hair | (level 5) - younger guy with coat and eating fruit salad
9 younger/middle aged guy

---------------
Level 5 - Blinds: 150/300

Hero dealt in UTG+1: Kx Kc 5c 4x

(9 handed)
Preflop:
(folds to Hero)
Hero (UTG+1): calls
(folds to Vil5)
Vil5 (UTG+3): calls
Vil6 (HJ): folds
Vil7 (CO): calls
Vil8 (But): folds
Vil9 (UTG): calls
(folds to Hero)
Hero (But): calls
Vil5 (SB): calls
Vil6 (BB): checks

(5 players - 1500 in pot)
Flop: 6d 7d Qs
Vil9: checks
Vil1: checks
Hero: checks
Vil5: bets 600
Vil7: calls
Vil9: folds
Vil1: folds
Hero: folds

(2 players - 2700 in pot)
Turn: 6d 7d Qs Jd
Vil5: bets 2000
Vil7: folds

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard. Hero has weak hand in EP.
Flop: Standard. Hero has non-nut OESD and overpair with no flush draw.

---------------
Level 5 - Blinds: 150/300

Hero dealt in BB: Xx Xx Xx Xx (likely suited Axxx, although it could be AAxx or rundown with 1-2 gaps)

(8 handed: Seat 2 is empty due to dead seat. No small blind since Vil2 busted in previous hand.)
Preflop:
Vil4 (UTG): calls
Vil5 (UTG+1): calls
(folds to Vil9)
Vil9 (CO): raises to 1300
Vil1 (But): folds
Hero (BB): calls
Vil4: calls
Vil5: calls

(4 players - 5200 in pot)
Flop: Kh 6h 2x
(all players check)

(4 players - 5200 in pot)
Turn: Kh 6h 2x 4h
Hero: checks
Vil4: bets 2000
Vil5: folds
Vil9: folds
Hero: folds

Analysis:
Preflop: Unknown. Hero did not write down actual played hand.
Flop: Hero is not able to bluff in a 4 way pot. Hero is check/folding.
Turn: Same as flop.

---------------
Level 5 - Blinds: 150/300
Hero's stack: 6625

Hero dealt in HJ: Qc Jh 9c 8h

(8 handed: Seats 4 and 8 are empty.)
Preflop:
Vil4 (UTG): calls
(folds to Vil7)
Vil7 (HJ): raises to 1500
Vil8 (CO): folds
Vil9 (But): calls
Vil1 (SB): folds
Hero (BB): reraises all in (6625)
Vil4: folds
Vil7: reraises all in (8200 total)
Vil9: folds

Vil7: shows Kd Kx Jd Tx

(2 players - 13400 in pot, 1 player all in)
Board: 7d 4d Kd Kx 2d

Hero: out in level 5

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard. Hero decides to squeeze and hopefully isolate 1 player. Hero's hand is in decent shape against AAxx (and less good shape against KKxx due to blockers removing more straight possibilities.)

---------------
Second Bullet - First Table Reads (Table 47):

1 (level 7) - guy with Nike hoodie
2 young African American guy
3 younger Asian - busted soon after hero sits at table
4 hero
5 (level 7) - younger guy
6 Asian guy
7 old guy with leather coat
8 young guy with MSPT patch (Chad H.)
9 old guy with cap

---------------
Level 6 - Blinds: 200/400

Hero dealt in UTG: Ah Tx 6h 5h

(7 handed: Seats 1 and 5 are empty.)
Preflop:
Hero (UTG): calls
(folds to Vil2)
Vil2 (SB): calls
Vil3 (BB): checks

(3 players - 1200 in pot)
Flop: Kx 8x 5x
(all players check)

(3 players - 1200 in pot)
Turn: Kx 8x 5x Jx
(all players check)

(3 players - 1200 in pot)
River: Kx 8x 5x Jx 9x
Vil2: checks
Vil3: checks
Hero: bets 1200
Vil2: raises to 2400
Vil3: folds
Hero: folds

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard, but a fold could be ok in EP.
Flop: Standard. Hero has air.
Turn: Same as flop.
River: Hero decides to bluff. The bet size is too big though. A 700-800 bet is much better to minimize losses if called or raised. The river minimum check raise is likely a rivered straight.

---------------
Level 6 - Blinds: 200/400

Hero dealt in BB: Kx 6x 3x 3x (rainbow)

(8 handed: Seats 4 and 8 are empty.)
Preflop:
(folds to Vil3)
Vil3 (SB): calls
Hero (BB): checks

(2 players - 800 in pot)
Flop: Kh 3d Tc
Vil3: checks
Hero: checks

(2 players - 800 in pot)
Turn: Kh 3d Tc 6s
Vil3: bets 800
Hero: calls

(2 players - 2400 in pot)
River: Kh 3d Tc 6s 3c
Vil3: checks
Hero: bets 2325
Vil3: folds

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard.
Flop: There is merit to betting too, but hero decides to check to let aggressive villain turn 2nd best hand or bluff.
Turn: Standard. Hero would rather let Vil3 fire 2 barrels on most rivers.
River: The bet size may be too big, but hero is trying to make it look like a bluff with a missed draw on river (weak broadway straight, etc...)

---------------
Level 6 - Blinds: 200/400

Hero dealt in SB: Kd Kh 7d 5h

Preflop:
(7 handed: Seats 1 and 5 are likely empty.)
(folds to Vil3)
Vil3 (But): raises to 1400?
Hero (SB): reraises pot to ~4200
Vil5 (BB): folds
Vil3: reraises all in (~7k)
Hero: calls

Vil3: shows 7x 6x 4x 3x

(2 players - ~14200 in pot, 1 player all in)
Board: Kx 6x Tx Jx 8x

Hero's stack: ~8k -> ~15k

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard. Hero tries to isolate short stack.

---------------
Hero dealt in HJ: Ah 8x 7x 2h

(7 handed: Seats 1 and 5 are likely empty.)
Preflop:
(folds to Vil9)
Vil9 (UTG+2): calls
(folds to Hero)
Hero (But): calls
Vil5 (SB): calls
Vil6 (BB): checks

(4 players - 1600 in pot)
Flop: 3x 5h 2h
(all players check)

(4 players - 1600 in pot)
Turn: 3x 5h 2h Kx
Vil5: checks
Vil6: checks
Vil9: checks
Hero: bets 1000
Vil5: folds
Vil6: folds
Vil9: folds

Hero: wins pot
Analysis:
Preflop: Standard.
Flop: Hero could try to steal pot now with a flush draw and pair, but hero can likely bet on turn as well to steal pot.
Turn: Standard. This is a decent spot to bluff and steal pot, but it is even better as a semi-bluff.

---------------
At this new table, there are many more players from Chicago land area. Hero also hears that a couple players are in a last longer bet.
It was a $1000 entry fee between 9 players. (This is about 2.75 buyins.)
Some players are trying to estimate prize pool to determine equity.
Once the prize pool is determined, hero discovers that the last longer winner gets greater than 3rd place money.
This likely contributes to the large number of entries and reentries.

---------------
Level 7 - Blinds: 300/600

Hero's image had been TAG/nit in a couple rotations.

Hero dealt in UTG+1: Ad Ah Jd 4h

(7 handed: Seats 1 and 5 are likely empty.)
Preflop:
Vil2 (UTG): folds
Hero (But): raises to 1400
(folds to Vil7)
Vil5 (CO): calls
(other players fold)

(2 players - 3700 in pot)
Flop: Kx Kx 9x (rainbow)
Hero: checks
Vil5: checks

(2 players - 3700 in pot)
Turn: Kx Kx 9x Jx (rainbow)
Hero: checks
Vil5: checks

(2 players - 3700 in pot)
River: Kx Kx 9x Jx Ax (rainbow)
Hero: bets 2000
Vil5: folds

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard, although a limp can also work.
Flop: Standard. The board is locked down and dry. Hero likely will continue to have best hand.
Turn: Same as flop, but a bit uglier with more broadway cards on board. Hero could probably have bet turn for value.
River: It may have been better to let Vil5 accidentally bet a worse hand (like straight). This was not a great bet size either. Could hero realistically get Vil5 to call? There is value in trying to keep table from seeing hero's hand though, but most realize that hero is likely betting a boat on river.

---------------
Hero dealt in CO: Ad Jx 4x 2d (a suited Axxx, but suits may not be accurate)

Preflop:
Vil8 (UTG): calls
Vil9 (UTG+1): folds
Vil1 (UTG+2): calls
(folds to Hero)
Hero (CO): calls
Vil5 (But): calls
Vil5 (SB): folds
Vil6 (BB): checks

(5 players - 3300 in pot)
Flop: Kh 3d Ad
(all players check)

(5 players - 3300 in pot)
Turn: Kh 3d Ad Kc
(all players check)

(5 players - 3300 in pot)
River: Kh 3d Ad Kc 6s
(all players check)

Vil?: shows AQxx
Hero: mucks hand

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard.
Flop: Standard. Hero has a weak overpair and no straight or flush draws.
Turn: Standard. Hero tries to cheaply get to showdown. Hero may win the hand at showdown sometimes.
River: Same as turn.

---------------
Hero dealt in BB: Ax 5d 3d 2x

Preflop:
(folds to Vil7)
Vil7 (UTG+2): calls
(folds to Vil1)
Vil1 (CO): calls
Vil2 (But): calls
Hero (SB): calls
Vil3 (BB): checks

(5 players - 3000 in pot)
Flop: Ax 6x Ax (rainbow)
Vil3: checks
Hero: bets 1600
(other players fold)

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard.
Flop: Standard. Hero does not want to let someone catch up to boat by pairing pocket pair. Hero likely bets turn/checks river, and folds to any aggression.

---------------
Level 8 - Blinds: 400/800

Hero's stack: ~14k?

Hero dealt in CO: Ah Tx 8h 3x

Preflop:
(folds to Vil9)
Vil9 (UTG+2): calls
Vil1 (UTG+3): folds
Vil2 (HJ): calls
Vil3 (HJ): calls
Hero (CO): calls
Vil5 (But): folds
Vil6 (SB): raises pot to 5600
Vil9 (UTG+1): calls
Vil2 (HJ): calls
Vil3 (HJ): calls
Hero (CO): folds

(4 players - 24000 in pot)
Flop: Kh Td 4x
Vil6: bets pot (all in)
(other players fold, IIRC)

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard. Hero's equity is bad against likely AAxx. Hero can gamble in this spot, but hero basically is committed with any decent amount of equity on many flops in multiway situation.

---------------
Hero dealt in CO: Ad Tx 8x 2d

(7 handed: Seats 2 and 3 are empty.)
Preflop:
Vil6 (UTG): calls
(folds to Vil1)
Vil1 (HJ): calls
Hero (CO): calls
Vil5 (SB): calls
Vil6 (BB): checks

(4 players - 3200 in pot)
Flop: Td 8c 7c
(all players check)

(4 players - 3200 in pot)
Turn: Td 8c 7c 2h
(all players check)

(4 players - 3200 in pot)
River: Td 8c 7c 2h 2s
(all players check)

Hero: likely won pot, but a villain may have won with an overpair.

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard.
Flop: Standard. Hero has a decent strength hand, but equity is not great against straights + large amounts of draws, etc....
Turn: Hero could actually bet this blank turn. It would be for value against flush/straight draws while hero is in position. The other players' hands are weak.
River: Standard. Overpairs are better hands that may call hero's bet.

---------------
Hero's stack at Level 9 break (Blinds: 500/1000): 17900

---------------
Level 9 - Blinds: 500/1000

Hero dealt in UTG+2: Ks Qh Js 8h

(7 handed: Seats 2 and 3 are empty.)
Preflop:
(folds to Hero)
Hero (UTG+2): raises to 2300
(folds to Vil6)
Vil6: calls
(other players fold)

(2 players - 6100 in pot)
Flop: Ac 3x Tc
Hero: bets 3700
Vil6: folds

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard.
Flop: Standard. Hero is semi-bluffing with weakest part of hero's range that raised preflop. Hero has some equity if called as well as some possible bluff opportunities.

---------------
Level 9 - Blinds: 500/1000

Hero dealt in SB: Ax Qh Jh Tx

(8 handed: Seat 3 is empty.)
Preflop:
Vil6 (~70k): calls
Vil7 (~6k): calls
(folds to Vil2)
Vil2 (But, 13k): raises to 5500
Hero (SB, 17.5k): thinks for a bit, then folds
(other players fold to Vil6)
Vil6: calls
Vil7: reraises all in (5900)
Vil2: calls all in
Vil6: calls

Analysis:
Preflop: Tough decision. Hero has 4 broadway cards (which is good). But, there are many players left to act. Hero's A in hand helps as a blocker, but it also makes hero's equity severely decrease. There are also 4 players in the pot, which makes the likelihood of winning hand less (although pay off is much higher). Hero decides to take the less variance route and fold.

---------------
Second Bullet - Second Table Reads (Table 42, 7 tables (63 players) left:

1 player with cap
2 hero
3 older guy
4 mid aged bald guy with sunglasses
5 older guy with shorty ponytail
6 shaved head with headphones
7 WV cap old guy
8 young guy with slicked hair and glasses
9 mid aged guy with glasses

---------------
Level 10 - Blinds: 600/1200

Hero dealt in SB: Ah Kx Qh Tx

(8 handed: Seat 5 is empty.)
Preflop:
Vil5 (UTG): calls
Vil6 (UTG+1): folds
Vil7 (UTG+2): calls
(folds to Vil1)
Vil1 (But): calls
Hero (SB): calls
Vil6 (BB): raises pot (raise to 6000)
(all players fold)

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard. Hero has very weak suited ace and is OOP. Hero is ok trying to go for flush, but not for 1/3 of hero's stack.

---------------
Hero dealt in UTG+2: Ah Kx Qh Tx

(8 handed: Seat 5 is empty.)
Preflop:
(folds to Hero)
Hero (UTG+2, ~18k): raises to 2700
(folds to Vil7)
Vil7 (SB, ~30+k): calls
Vil8 (BB, ~30+k): calls

(3 players - 8100 in pot)
Flop: Jh 9s 7h
Hero: thinks for a bit, then bets 5000
Vil7: raises to 23000
Hero: calls all in

Vil7: shows Qx Jx Jx 8x

(2 players - in pot, 1 player all in)
Board: Jh 9s 7h Ac 3d

Hero eliminated.

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard.
Flop: Hero actually thought a lot about checking this flop too. Hero's equity is ok against made straight. Hero is a huge equity favorite, so hero might have better chance of "trying to get last raise in" to maximize fold equity. Regardless, hero is likely going to go with hand.

PPT range against nut hand heavy villain range:
Omaha Hi Simulation ?
12,118,780 trials (Exhaustive)
board: Jh 9s 7h
Hand Equity Wins Ties
JJ, 99, T8 43.83% 5,167,266 288,357
Ah Kd Qh Ts 56.17% 6,663,157 288,357
http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Jh+9s+7h&g=oh&h1=JJ%2C+99%2C+T8&h2=Ah+Kd+Qh+Ts&s=generic

Omaha Hi Simulation ?
board: Jh 9s 7h
Hand Equity Wins Ties
T8 39.89% 3,004,775 276,765
Ah Kd Qh Ts 60.11% 4,598,660 276,765
http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Jh+9s+7h&g=oh&h1=T8&h2=Ah+Kd+Qh+Ts&s=generic

Omaha Hi Simulation ?
board: Jh 9s 7h
Hand Equity Wins Ties
JJ 51.31% 1,101,558 5,733
Ah Kd Qh Ts 48.69% 1,045,209 5,733
http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Jh+9s+7h&g=oh&h1=JJ&h2=Ah+Kd+Qh+Ts&s=generic

---------------
Hero out ~43/227. (Hero believes there were 8 tables remaining.) The tournament finished around level 24 (8:00PMish local time) on Day 2.

Overall Thoughts:
Hero finds out that there were many entries likely due to the 2.75x buyin last longer. The winner of the last longer (between 9 Chicago area regulars) wins greater than 3rd place money!
There were 227 total entries. Hero (and others) suspect there were maybe ~110-120 unique entries. Many fired 2 barrels, while 1 likely fired 12 barrels.
They were also (optionally) giving away $10 slot vouchers for each entry. Hero has 2 * $10 slot vouchers which are souvenirs that hero did not use.

The field seemed a bit tough in spots as there were not as many random bad players in the field. This was likely due to Chicago being close to the area (60 minutes south).

Hero's play was not really that great in spots. There were some bright moments, but there are also improvement areas where river bluff sizing may not have been ideal.