450 2-7 Triple Draw MTT at Aria

450 2-7 Triple Draw MTT at Aria
18000 starting chips at 50/100 blinds and 100/200 limits and 30 min. levels.

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First Table Reads (back of room - left or middle table):
1 young, middle aged Arab, quickly on, hero discovered villain was a tough player.
2 old guy w/ cap
3 old guy
4 Latino guy
5 hero
6 middle aged guy with Denver Broncos jersey

Hero late registered at break of end of level 4.
Hero won an AriaPoker twitter promotion and received $125 off the MTT buyin.
There were 60 runners at the break. TDJustin and others thought there would be a couple late entrants. Unfortunately, hero was the only one.
There were 61 runners, but hero was asked to wait until a player was eliminated to not have to force an extra dealer down.

Hero also saw Bill Chen in the field.

Hero finally started with about 15 minutes left in level 5.
When noted, X > 9 (paired low cards (2-8) are listed as that adds equity to hero's hand)

Blinds: 200/400
Limits: 400/800
Hero's stack: 18000 (22.5 big bets)

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Hero dealt in BB: 7432x

Predraw:
Vil1 (UTG): raises
(folds to hero)
Hero (BB): 3-bets
Vil1: calls

1D 1B 2D 2B 3D 3B
Hero: 1 b 1 b/c 1 c
Vil1: 2 c 2 r pat c

Hero's hand after 1st Draw: 7432x
Hero's hand after 2nd Draw: 7432x
Hero's hand after 3rd Draw: T7432

Vil1: shows T5432
Hero: folds

Analysis:
Predraw: 1 card wheel draw - 3 bet even UTG opener.
1st Draw: Standard.
2nd Betting Round: Standard.
2nd Draw: Standard.
3rd Betting Round: Standard bet/call.
3rd Draw: Standard.
4th Betting Round: Hero might consider check/fold b/c villain range is strong on bet.

Hero realizes that villain will try to show aggression to slow down action post draw with Txxx and over-represent hand.

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Hero dealt in HJ: 7525x

Predraw:
(folds to hero)
Hero (HJ): raises
Vil6 (CO): 3-bets
Vil1 (But): calls
Hero: calls

1D 1B 2D 2B 3D 3B
Hero: 2 x/f
Vil6: 2 b/c 1 b pat b
Vil6: 2 r 1 c 1 f

Hero's hand after 1st Draw: 7752x

Analysis:
Predraw: Hero has smooth 2 card wheel draw. Hero raise/calls.
1st Draw: Standard.
2nd Betting Round: Hero c/f when facing 2 bets is standard since hero did not really improve.

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Level 6:
Blinds: 300/600
Limits: 600/1200

Hero dealt in SB: 8542x

Predraw
(folds to Vil3)
Vil3 (CO): calls
Vil4 (But): raises
Hero (SB): calls
Vil6 (BB): calls

1D 1B 2D 2B 3D 3B
Vil5: 1 b 1 x pat b
Vil6: 2 c 2 x 2 f
Vil3: 3 x/c 1 x 1 b
Vil4: 2 x/f

Hero's hand after 1st Draw: 8542x
Hero's hand after 2nd Draw: 8542x
Hero's hand after 3rd Draw: 98542

Analysis:
Predraw: This could have actually been a better spot to 3-bet squeeze with a strong 8 1 card draw. Sigh.
1st Draw: Standard.
2nd Betting Round: Standard.
2nd Draw: Standard.
3rd Betting Round: After talking with mixed game pro friend, hero also realizes hand is face up as weak. Hero should have bet as hero improved to a likely pat 98. If hero is raised, hero can consider a break. A donk bet with 9 against a 2 card draw is best play in this spot to get that villain to fold their equity. It could be deemed as check/raise spot. Sigh.
3rd Drawing round: Could hero break? Hero's hand is barely a favorite post-draw against 2 players (IIRC).
4th Betting Round: Hero could have been looking like check/raising on previous hand, so leading might have been best.

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Hero dealt on button: 7632x

Predraw:
(folds to hero)
Hero (button): raises
Vil6: folds
Vil1: calls

1D 1B 2D 2B 3D 3B
Vil1: 2 x/c 1 x/f
Hero: 1 b 2 b

Hero's hand after 1st Draw: 7632x
Hero's hand after 2nd Draw: 7632x

Analysis:
Predraw: Standard and likely capping predraw.
1st Draw: Standard.
2nd Betting Round: Standard.
2nd Draw: Standard.
3rd Betting Round: Standard.

Hero's stack: 13100

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Hero dealt in button: 43xxx (no other wheel/8 cards)

Predraw:
folds to Vil4 on button
Vil4 (button): calls
Hero: calls
Vil6: calls

1D 1B 2D 2B 3D 3B
Hero: 2 x 1 b/c 1 x/f
Vil6: 4 x 3 c/c 1 x/f
Vil4: 2 x 2 r pat b

Hero's hand after 1st Draw: 43xxx
Hero's hand after 2nd Draw: 74322
Hero's hand after 3rd Draw: 77322

Analysis:
Predraw: standard with 2 wheel cards, but it is slightly loose. Also, hero needs to ensure BB rarely raises.
1st Draw: Standard.
2nd Betting Round: Standard.
2nd Draw: Standard.
3rd Betting Round: Hero picks up a lot of equity and decides to bet a strong 1 card draw. The raise is a bit ugly, but hero is smooth and needs to call.
3rd Draw: Standard.
4th Betting Round: Hero thinks a check/raise in this spot since hero has so many blockers may work out best. The only small concern is that Vil6 seemed to not be the type to bet/fold. But, it seems like a really interesting play.

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Level 7: Table breaks (1st table to break since late register table)
2nd table reads:

1 young Asian
2 old guy with glasses
3 young Middle Eastern guy
4 young Asian
5 hero
6 (empty)

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Hero dealt UTG (5 handed): 8642x

Predraw:
Hero: raises
Vil2: calls
Vil4 (BB): calls

1D 1B 2D 2B
Vil4: 3 x/c 2 x/f
Hero: 1 b 1 b
Vil2: 2 c 1 x/f

Hero's hand after 1st draw: 8642x
Hero's hand after 2nd draw: 8642x

Analysis:
Predraw: Standard with 8642 1cd.
1st Draw: Standard.
2nd Betting Round: Standard as hero is 1 card ahead.
2nd Draw: Standard.
3rd Betting Round: There could be some merit in checking, but hero decides to continue showing aggression

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Hero realizes that Vil2 seems competent based on various showdowns.

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Hero dealt in BB: 7542x

Predraw:
(folds to Vil2)
Vil2 (CO): limps
(folds to hero)

1D 1B 2D 2B 3D 3B
Hero: 1 b/c 1 x/c 1 x
Vil4: 2 r pat b pat x

Hero's hand after 1st draw: 7542x
Hero's hand after 2nd draw: 7542x
Hero's hand after 2nd draw: Q7542 (maybe it was a T or J)

Vil2: shows 98xxx
Hero: mucks

Analysis:
Predraw: There might be merit in not reraising predraw due to limit MTT short stack strategy (winning more chips less important versus staying in MTT), but hero has huge draw. Raise.
1st Draw: Standard.
2nd Betting Round: Standard card ahead, but hero goes into check/call mode once villain raises (announcing at least strong 1 card draw, but more likely a pat hand).
2nd Draw: Standard.
3rd Betting Round: Hero card behind = check/call.
3rd Draw: Standard.
4th Betting Round: Hero has showdown value and will not likely get villain to fold. Maybe hero should check/raise some range (like paired 5s+)

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Level 8:
Blinds: 500/1000
Limits: 1000/2000

Hero's stack: 2500
Hero made bad play with 5432, saying hero's draw is "smooth"

Predraw:
Vil2: raises
Hero: reraises all in (betting actions reopens).
(folds to Vil2)
Vil2: calls

1D 1B 2D 2B 3D 3B
Hero: 2 x 1 b/c 1 x/f
Vil2: 1 x pat c/c pat x/f

Hero's hand after 1st draw: 5432x
Hero's hand after 2nd draw: 5432x
Hero's hand after 3rd draw: Q5432

Vil2: shows 97xxx
Hero sweats last draw - Q (maybe J or pair...)

Analysis:
Predraw: Standard with strong hand to take stand and try to knock out BB.
1st Draw: Standard with smooth draw and > 9 drawn.
2nd Draw: Standard with smooth draw and > 9 drawn.
3rd Draw: Standard with smooth draw and > 9 drawn.

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Hero out in 51st of 61 runners.
Hero won 2 pots uncontested on 3rd betting round (not 1 per twitter), but hero bricked every single wheel draw.