Wednesday, June 22, 2016

WSOP 1500 PLO at Rio

7500 starting chips at 25/50 blinds and 60 min. levels.

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First Table Reads (Table 55, Late Register Table):
1 hero
2 young euro
3 empty (5th hand - African American guy)
4 2nd hand - middle aged guy
5 1/2 way through level - middle aged male (Arthur Morris)
6 older male
7 old guy/glasses lost
8 mid aged guy
9 empty, level 3 - younger guy

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Hero late registered around 11:15-11:20 and sprinted to table. Hero then realizes only 2 other people were seated. Since play could not start until 4 people were at table, hero had to wait until it filled up. There was about 5-10 minute delay.

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Level 1 - Blinds 25/50
5 handed
Hero dealt in SB: Ac 2x 5c 3c

Preflop:
Vil6 (HJ): folds
Vil7 (CO): raises to 100
Vil8 (But): calls
Hero (SB): calls
Vil2 (BB): calls

(3 players - 400 in pot)
Flop: Ax 8c 4x
Hero: checks
Vil2: checks
Vil7: bets 100
Vil8: raises to 400
Hero: folds
Vil2: folds
Vil7: calls

(2 players - 1200 in pot)
Turn: Ax 8c 4x Jc
Vil7: checks
Vil8: bets 500
Vil7: folds

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard. Hero has suited ace in likely multiway pot.
Flop: Hero could reraise if it was a single bet/call, but hero decides to avoid huge variance with wheel wrap and little fold equity if hero raises.

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Hero dealt in BB: Ah Jx Th 6x

Preflop:
(folds to Vil6)
Vil6 (CO): raises to 150
Vil7 (But): calls
Vil8 (SB): folds
Hero (BB): calls

(3 players - 475 in pot)
Flop: 5x 8h Th
(all players check)

(3 players - 475 in pot)
Turn: 5x 8h Th Ac
Hero: checks
Vil6: checks
Vil7: bets 200
Hero: calls
Vil6: folds

(2 players - 875 in pot)
River: 5x 8h Th Ac 8d
(all players check)

Hero: wins at showdown
Vil7: mucks

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard.
Flop: Hero can check/raise or check/call. Hero likely check/raising since there is ok equity and may get it in against naked wraps or dominated combo draws. Hero could also check/call and see what turn brings before making a play.
Turn: Hero continues to keep a strong check/call range.
River: Hero does not likely get value from a worse hand. There may be many villains bluffing a semi-draw, so hero decides to let that villain's part of range continue to bluff.

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Level 2 - Blinds: 50/100
6 handed

Hero dealt in But?: 7x 5x 4x 3x (rainbow)

Preflop:
(folds to Vil7)
Vil7 (CO): calls
(folds to hero)
Hero (SB): calls
Vil2 (BB): checks

(3 players - 300 in pot)
Flop: Kx 9h 7s
(all players check)

(3 players - 300 in pot)
Turn: Kx 9h 7s Tc
Hero folds to bet (not sure which player bet)

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard.
Flop: Standard. Hero has little pot or fold equity.
Turn: Same as flop.

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8 handed

Hero dealt in EP: Ac Jc Tx 4x

Preflop:
(folds to Hero)
Hero (EP): raises to 250
Vil7 (BB): calls

(2 players - 550 in pot)
Flop: 9s 4s 2d
Vil7: checks
Hero: checks

(2 players - 550 in pot)
Turn: 9s 4s 2d Kh
Vil7: checks
Hero: bets 300
Vil7: folds

Analysis:
Preflop: It might be slightly loose open in EP. Hero was also not very active preflop.
Flop: Standard. Hero has little equity and would likely need to bet flop and turn to generate fold equity.
Turn: Hero decides to make a play at pot given dry board and villain's large weakness. It can hit some of hero's perceived range.

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Hero dealt in BB: 9x 7x 4x 2x

Preflop:
Vil3 (UTG): calls
Vil8 (SB): calls
Hero (BB): checks

(3 players - 300 in pot)
Flop: Ah 2h Tx
(all players check)

(3 players - 300 in pot)
Turn: Ah 2h Tx 7x
Vil8: bets 200
Hero: folds
Vil3: calls

(3 players - 700 in pot)
River: Ah 2h Tx 7x 5x
(all players check)

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard.
Flop: Standard. Hero has little equity, but not so little to turn hand into bluff.
Turn: This may have been a better spot to call and bluff catch, but having a player behind hero makes it less desirable. It is a blank turn.

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Hero's image remains fairly tight.
7 handed (Seats 5 and 9 are empty)

Hero dealt in HJ: Xx Xx Xx Xx (maybe suited ace?)

Preflop:
(folds to Vil2)
Hero (HJ): raises to 250
Vil7 (BB): calls

(2 players - 550 in pot)
Flop: Kd Jh 6s
Vil7: checks
Hero: bets 400
Vil7: folds

Analysis:
Preflop: ? due to lack of HH.
Flop: This is a good bet to make due to hero's image. Hero did not write hole cards, but it hits a ton of hero's range. Normal value range would be two pair+, wraps, etc...

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Hero dealt in SB: 9x 8s 7s 6x

Preflop:
(folds to Vil9)
Vil9 (But): raises to 350
Hero (SB): calls
Vil2 (BB): calls

(3 players - 1050 in pot)
Flop: 9d Kh 7c
Hero: checks
Vil2: checks
Vil9: bets 1050
Hero: calls
Vil2: folds

(2 players - 3150 in pot)
Turn: 9d Kh 7c Ah
(all players check)

(3 players - 1050 in pot)
River: 9d Kh 7c Ah Jd
(all players check)

Vil9: shows T986
Hero: mucks

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard.
Flop: Hero could check/raise, but hero would be guessing on most turn cards. Hero decides to check/call and reevaluate.
Turn: This is not a great card for hero. Hero's hand has become a showdown hand.
River: Hero is surprised villain does not value bet river. Hero would likely call as there could be some bluffs and/or top pair+other pair that villain may value bet.

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Hero's stack at Level 3 break (Blinds: 75/150): 6100

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Level 3 - Blinds: 75/150

Vil9 appeared to be a younger, aggressive player.
Hero dealt in UTG+1: Ac Ks Jd Jh

Preflop:
Vil9 (UTG): raises to 350
Hero (UTG+1): calls

(2 players - 925 in pot)
Flop: Qx 8s 3x
(both players check)

(2 players - 925 in pot)
Turn: Qx 8s 3x 5s
Vil9: bets 600
Hero: calls

(2 players - 925 in pot)
River: Qx 8s 3x 5s 9d
Vil9: thinks for a a little bit, then bets 1000
Hero: raises to 3500
Vil9: folds

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard.
Flop: Standard. Hero has some showdown value and will not get a worse hand to call on dry board.
Turn: On dry board, villain was younger player likely could be trying to bluff in this spot.
River: Hero decides to bluff with blockers on dry river card. Hero also believes that villain is two barrel bluffing in this spot often.

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Hero dealt in UTG: Tx 9s 8s 6x

Preflop:
(folds to Vil2)
Hero (UTG): raises to 450
Vil2: calls
Vil8: calls
Vil9: reraises to 1575
Hero: calls 1125
Vil2: folds
Vil8: reraises pot
Vil9: reraises pot
Hero: tanks/folds

Analysis:
Preflop: First raise is fine. Calling in a spot MW with others left behind where villain will likely will reraise and other players left behind was probably a mistake. Hero made the worse of all plays by calling 1 raise, but not going all in.

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Hero is moved to a new table. Hero's stack: 7550 at Level 4 - Blinds: 100/200

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Second Table Reads (Table 34):

1 hero
2 older guy with cap/glasses
3 older guy with cap
4 young guy with beard
5 mid aged guy with cap
6 mid aged guy with cowboys hat
7 older guy
8 mid aged guy with sunglasses
9 grey haired guy with hoodie

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Hero was tight and had 0 VPIP for first 2 orbits.

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SB was eliminated, so only BB.
Hero dealt in Button: Ac 8c 4c 2c

Preflop:
(folds to Hero)
Hero (But): folds

Analysis:
Preflop: Hero is really nitty. A suited ace is within almost any player's button opening range. Why fold? Hero was not playing overly well.

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Hero dealt in BB: 8x 5c 4c 3x

Preflop:
(folds to Vil4)
Vil4 (UTG+2): raises to 450
Vil6 (CO): calls
Vil7 (But): calls
Hero (BB): calls

(4 players - 1900 in pot)
Flop: Ts 4c Jd
Hero: checks
Vil4: bets 1200
Vil6: calls
Vil7: folds
Vil9: folds
Hero: folds

(2 players - 4300 in pot)
Turn: Ts 4c Jd 8s

Analysis:
Preflop: Standard.
Flop: Standard. Hero has no equity in a MW pot, even though hero is closing the action.

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Hero's stack: ~9k (stack sizes are approximate)
Hero dealt in CO: Jx Tx 9s 7s

5/8

Preflop:
(folds to Vil2)
Vil8 (UTG+2, ~6k): raises to 1000
Hero (CO): reraises to 3000
Vil5 (BB, ~10k): reraises to 9000
Vil8 (UTG+2): reraises all in
Hero (CO): thinks for a while, then calls.

Vil5: shows Ax Ax Xx Xx
Vil8: shows Ax Kc Tc Tx

(3 players - > 27000 in pot, 2 players all in)
Board: Jx Jx Ac Tc 8c
Vil3: checks

Hero is barely eliminated by Vil5's slightly more chips.

Analysis:
Preflop: Similar situation. If hero had flatted, this might be an easier fold.
There's too much money in the pot to do anything but fold. Against likely 2 AAxx hands, hero has ~33% equity. It is obviously worse if 1 has a rundown because it dominates hero. But, hero did not believe either range was heavily weighted towards those rundowns as neither player seemed like a maniac in short amount of time.
Vil8's hand is pretty bad to be raise/calling.

PPT Simulations:
Omaha Hi Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AA 45.04% 261,880 16,698
$B$B$B$B 23.18% 131,064 15,993
JT97 31.79% 189,481 2,507

Omaha Hi Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AA 43.57% 260,038 2,785
KK 23.07% 136,978 2,924
JT97 33.36% 198,132 4,033

Omaha Hi Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AA 29.91% 94,420 170,136
AA 29.98% 94,801 170,107
JT97 40.11% 238,798 3,737

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Hero out near end of Level 4.

Hero was not happy with inconsistent preflop play. There is no reason to ever be folding preflop after raise/call. Hero should have been either more willing to gamble earlier in a similar spot, or fold and wait for a better HU (or flop/turn) spot.

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