UnknownName3's Blog: February 2013

365 HORSE MTT at Palm Beach Kennel Club

Hero late registered and barely beat registration deadline (15 min. before first break)

10000 starting and no chips lost due to late registration

limit starting at 150/300 (missed 2 levels of 75/150 and 1 level of 100/200)

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Initial Table Reads:

1 - hero

2 - old guy

4 - young ~18-21 year old poker player (Sam) - he commented about me flipping up cards if I was folding by asking if I had played a lot of stud tournaments. (I told him I learned it in my first stud MTT by some dealer who saw me try and fail a lot.)

6 - ~18ish/younger person - ipad in lap, likely online player

seeemed aggressive in few stud/8 hands

7 - dead stack

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Stud/8

3rd street:

hero: (Ac 4c) | 6s 8h

vil1: (Xx Xx) | Ks 7d

vilx: | 3h <--- bring="" div="" in="">

vil2: (Xx Xx) | 5c

vilx: | Xx

vil3: (Xx Xx) | Ts

no aces out, 2 low and 2 high cards folded, 1-2 clubs dead

vil2 limps

3 folds

vil3 limps

hero limps

vil1 completes

bring in folds

other players call

4th: (4 small bets, bring in, 8 antes)

hero: (Ac 4c) | 6s 8h

vil1: (Xx Xx) | Ks 7d <--- div="" here="" start="">

vil2: (Xx Xx) | 5c Jd //bricked 4th street low

vil3: (Xx Xx) | Js 7h

v1 bets

2 players call

hero raises

v1 reraises

both villains fold

hero calls

5th: (2 players - 7.5 big bets + BI/8 antes)

hero: (Ac 4c) | 6s 8h Jd

vil1: (Xx Xx) | Ks 7d 9s <--- div="" here="" start="">

vil1 bets

hero calls

6th: (2 players - 9.5 big bets + BI/8 antes)

hero: (Ac 4c) | 6s 8h Jd 6c <--- div="" here="" start="">

vil1: (Xx Xx) | Ks 7d 9s 5h

hero bets

vil1 calls

7th: (2 players - 11.5 big bets + BI/8 antes)

hero: (Ac 4c) | 6s 8h Jd 6c (Td)<--- div="" here="" start="">

vil1: (Xx Xx) | Ks 7d 9s 5h (Xx)

check

hero thinks/checks

vil1: shows (Kd 4h) Ks 7d 9s 5h (Qd)

vil1 shows pair of kings and scoops.

Analysis:

Hero tried to squeeze one extra bet on 4th with very likely the best (and only) low draw. This was a little optimistic, although I was trying to get value from the worse low draw.

I was also hoping to get into a freeroll situation ideally on 5th street or later, but slowing down may have been slightly better since there wasn't much scoop potential for hero...

Bluffs rarely work in stud/8 with low cards showing. It would be simply for value as villains rarely fold.

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Hero's stack at first break: 7800

After the break, hero was moved to a new table (with all other late registrations) and had to start anew with compromised starting stack, while everyone else had 10000 starting stacks. It started over with LHE. Sadly, in the 4-5 hands I saw, the initial table seemed really soft.

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Tweet:

Via 2p2 decided against 2537 runners bc someone picked 2536 for million guarantee. I chose 2550 instead and lost as there were 2538 runners

Side bar:

There was a multi-day, multi-entry $580 NLHE MTT with a 1 million guarantee. On 2p2, people can guess the total number of entries.

I saw this and was originally going to guess 2537, but chose 2550 instead b/c there was an entry for 2536. LOL - results oriented thinking....I'm not sure what the prize was.

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LHE hand 1

hero in BB: dealt 98s

preflop

folds to seat 6

6: limp

7: raises

sb: folds

hero: calls

6: calls

(3 players - 6 small bets)

flop: 9x 9h 4h

hero: checks

6: checks

7: bets

hero: raises

6: folds

7: calls

(2 players - 5 big bets)

turn: 9x 9h 4h Tc

hero: bets

7: calls

(2 players - 7 big bets)

river: 9x 9h 4h Tc Js

hero: bets

7: raises

hero: calls

7: shows JJ

hero: mucks

Analysis:

LHE means suited connectors and small pairs decrease in value due to less implied odds. However, this still seemed fine given it's a discounted price and there was already 1 limper.

Some argument can be made for c/r turn, but I think c/r flop gets more bets into the pot.

hero's stack: 6650

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razz

hero did not see many low dead hole cards (suspicion on up cards: 4 paint cards, 3 and 5 were likely dead)

seat 1 - vil1

seat 2 - hero

bring in - seat 3

3rd

5 players fold

vil1: (Xx Xx) | Ad

hero: (5c 4s) | 7d

bring: (Xx Xx)| Js

vil1: completes

hero: calls

4th: (2 players - 2 small bets + antes/bring)

vil1: (Xx Xx) | Ad 3s

hero: (5c 4s) | 7d 6s

vil1: bets

hero: calls

5th: (2 players - 2 big bets + antes/bring)

vil1: (Xx Xx) | Ad 3s 8h

hero: (5c 4s) | 7d 6s Kx

vil1: checks

hero: checks

6th: (2 players - 2 big bets + antes/bring)

vil1: (Xx Xx) | Ad 3s 8h Js

hero: (5c 4s) | 7d 6s Kx 2d

vil1 checks

hero bets

vil1 calls

7th: (2 players - 4 big bets + antes/bring)

vil1: (Xx Xx) | Ad 3s 8h Js (Xx)

hero: (5c 4s) | 7d 6s Kx 2d (Td)

vil1 checks

hero bets

vil1 calls

vil1 shows 8532a

hero shows 76542 and wins

Analysis:

Generally speaking, the best draw (assuming 8-low or better) on 5th is a favorite, barring large amounts of weird dead cards.

5th: With the likely best draw, it is likely mandatory bet on 5th. Although, technically, hero's draw is not really smooth...

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1-2 hands later in razz

hero: seat 2

vil1: seat 3

vil2: seat 4

3rd:

5 players fold

hero: (Ax 6x) | 3x 5h

vil1: (Xx Xx) | Jd Qs

bring:(Xx Xx) | Jc Js

hero completes

vil1: calls

bring: calls

4th: (3 players - 3 small bets + BI/antes)

hero: (Ax 6x) | 3x 5h <--- 1st="" act="" div="" to="">

vil1: (Xx Xx) | Jd

bring:(Xx Xx) | Jc Js

hero: bets

vil1: folds

bring: folds

Analysis:

In razz, usually (if normal ante/bring-in/complete values) are small, it's worthwhile to "out-4th street" a player if it's just the bring in. Usually it's a 3-1 chance of doing that.

The ante structure is also very conducive to loose peels (it was 100 ante, 100 bringin, 400/800 limits).

But, when 2 players are in, it's about 10-1 chance of "out-4th street" and is usually a fold.

(source: Joe Tall's training videos)

Stack: 8375

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New table (2nd table - with all other late registrations)

1 - person with BestBet Jacksonville cap, older, nice guy

2 - hero

3 - older guy - seemed tightish

4 - older guy who was ~20th or so in plo8 - seemed to be ok

5 - David (middle aged) from 2010 Golden Nugget Stud/8 MTT

6 - middle aged man

7 - youngish lady with glasses

8 - empty, eventually older lady, seemed to play tight

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stud hi

3rd:

vil0: folds

vil1: (Xx Xx) Kd

vil2: (Xx Xx) As

hero: (Qd 9s) Qd

4 players left to act

vil1 raises

vil2 reraises

hero folds

Analysis:

Against likely split kings and aces (or rolled up), it's bad to call 1 or 2 bets cold if at least my kicker isn't an over to the raising "pairs".

Villains also seemed straightforward, so no reason to get involved with marginal split queen holding.

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New table:

Stack: 7300

limits: 400/800

seat 1 - hero

seat 2 - very loose, not sure how well player was

seat 3 - older guy seemed to be tighter/competent and knew seat 4

seat 4 - Bobby (~50ish old person) stack person mentioned in tweet; talked about swings in limit MTTs

seat 5 - older villain, very short stack

seat 6 - somewhat competent talking player (seemed to be a veteran of HORSE MTTs)

seat 7 - older guy, by about ~2 rotations, noticed he was very loose

seat 8 - brittany, then older woman (both seemed tight/competent)

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stud hi

Note: Hero does not recall exact up cards for other villains other than vil4. Situations were approximated

bring in - seat 2

3rd:

vil3: (Xx Xx) | 7s 8d Td

vil4: (Xx Xx) | Jc 6s Ah Ac (Xx)

vil6: (Xx Xx) | 8c 9h 5c 3h

vil7: (Xx Xx) | Ks 9h 5c 3h

hero: (Qs 6h) | Qd Jc 6d Qc (Th)

bring: (Xx Xx)| 4d 6s

bring: brings-in

vil3, 4, 6, 7 call bring-in

hero: calls bringin

4th: (6 players - 6 BIs + antes)

vil7: checks

hero: bets

bring: folds

vil3: calls

vil4: calls

vil6: calls

vil7: calls

5th: (4 players - ~2.5 big bets + antes)

hero: bets

vil1: folds

vil2: calls

vil3: calls

6th: (3 players - 5.5 big bets + antes)

vil4: bets

hero: raises

vil3: folds

vil4: calls

7th (2 players - 9.5 big bets + antes)

vil4: checks

hero: bets

vil4: calls

Hero: Shows trip queens

vil4: mucks

Analysis:

3rd - Hero had second highest door card. Highest door card didn't raise. Hero was not sure how live my suit was (there may have been 1 dead). TBH, it could be a leak by not raising here for value since split kings would have raised for value (and therefore split queens is likely best hand).

It was a conservative play based on hero's dwindling stack size, but tbh, K door limping is likely a 3 flush or a small pair with king door.

4th - Deception gone - betting the offsuit J seemed kind of spew as it only lets hero rep like an OESD w/ possibly a 3-flush (but mainly OESD). Hero could also have limped three big connected broadway (QJT).

5th - The Ace door is somewhat scary, but hero should continue to lead for value.

6th - Villain pairs aces and leads. Hero raises for value. vil4's likely holding is aces up.

7th - Hero likely bet/calls here. A ton of worse hands (aces up) will likely crying call in huge pot. Likely vil4's hand was Aces up.

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break

hero's stack: 11800 at 600/1200 limit

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lo8:

hero dealt in CO: Ac Qs 9s 2d

preflop:

folds to hero in CO

hero: raises

butt: folds

sb: folds

bb: reraises

hero: calls

(2 players, 6.5 small bets - 3900)

flop: 4h 7d 9h

vil4: bets

hero: calls

(2 players, 4.25 big bets - 5100)

turn: 4h 7d 9h 9s

vil4: bets

hero: raises

vil4: calls

(2 players, 6.25 big bets - 6700)

river: 4h 7d 9h 9s jd

vil4: checks

hero: bets

vil4: calls

Hero shows: trip 9s, ace kicker

Vil4 shows: AA48, aces up

Analysis:

Preflop: Ok to flat the 3b

Flop: Calling against likely AAxx with outs to pair up

Turn: Raise for value

River: Bet for value.

hero's stack: 17600

---------

bb: hero dealt Kx Tc 6y 2c (T2 suited)

(3 players, 3.5sb = 2100)

flop:

KT2 rainbow

hero bets in bb

2 calls

(3 players, 3.25bb = 3900)

turn: KT29 (brings diamond flush draw)

hero bets turn

2 folds

Analysis: BB special. Easy bets for value, with likely bet/call on turn if facing raises by random villain with OESD that called flop.

hero's stack: 20500

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twitter: Deja vu in razz with diff up cards. Missed 3 b on third. 23900

bring in - seat 8

seat 1 - hero

Approximations of where up cards were, but players involved past 3rd street are correct.

3rd

bring: (Xx Xx)| Js

hero: (5c 4s) | 7d 6h as

vil2: (Xx Xx) | Ad 2d Jh

vil3: (Xx Xx) | 3h

vil4: (Xx Xx) | Ts

vil5: (Xx Xx) | 7c

vil6: (Xx Xx) | 5d

vil7: (Xx Xx) | 4h

bring in: brings in

hero: completes

vil3: raises

5 folds

hero: calls

4th: (2 players - 4 small bets + antes)

hero: (5c 4s) | 7d 6h as

vil2: (Xx Xx) | Ad 2d Jh <--- act="" div="" first="" to="">

vil2: bets

hero: calls

5th: (2 players - 3 big bets + antes)

hero: (5c 4s) | 7d 6h as <--- act="" div="" first="" to="">

vil2: (Xx Xx) | Ad 2d Jh

hero: bets

vil2: folds

Analysis:

3rd: This should have been a 3rd raise (cap = 4 bets) with so many hero dead cards.

4th: Jamming 4th should be likely too as likely equity favorite. Hero also isn't super short such that a conservative approach is preferred if "hero's stack is short and saving chips is more important than a small increase in chips".

5th: OK

hero's stack: 23900

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side note:

Villain had ~500 starting in razz, and got anted out of the MTT a 100 at a time (seat 5).

1 villain got anted out of the MTT and was just waiting for a hand it seemed.

In a limit MTT, it can actually be ok to get anted off/blinded off, contrary to NLHE/big bet MTT strategy. Since short stack gets "dead money" as a short stack and could get more dead money (antes/blinds) into pot, it can be slightly higher cEV to wait and get in a spot multi-way "for more value" and other villains will not have to risk as much to at least see flop/4th.

Also, if a bet is >= 1/2 a full raise in limit, it counts as a full raise.

Example: Blinds 600/1200 and limits are 1200/2400. If a person raises all in to 1800, it counts as a full raise for the purposes of determining a cap (ie: 1 full bet of 1 bet/4 raise cap).

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Updated Reads:

seat 1 - hero

seat 2 - very loose and aggressive, not sure if player was that competent

seat 3 - older guy seemed to be tighter/competent and knew seat 4

seat 4 - Bobby (~50ish old person); talked about swings in limit MTTs; his MTT life was up 2x (razz 1x? and stud/8), but was building a very healthy stack; seemed TAGish and competent

seat 5 - new player - middle aged man; had live casino's "Spring Break MTT" shirt on.

seat 6 - somewhat competent talking player (seemed to be a veteran of HORSE MTTs)

seat 7 - older guy, by about ~2 rotations, noticed he was very loose and passive

seat 8 - older woman - she may not have been very competent in stud/8 though

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LHE

Question for readers:

Hero's stack: approximately ~18300

Hero dealt: K7s on button

No reads on any players for LHE.

HJ raise

1 flat call

hero's action = ?

Analysis:

Math seems to say it might be a flat call with K7s on the button in a likely multi-way pot, but there were no reads on PFR's range preflop.

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LHE

Hero was not involved with this hand, but read matters for future hands.

preflop:

2 folds

vil5: raises

2 folds

vil8: calls on button

2 folds

(2 players - 5.5 small bets)

flop: T64 two tone (hero has no flush draw)

vil5: bets

vil8: calls

(2 players - 3.75 big bets)

turn: T64Q (flush completes)

vil5: checks

vil8: checks

(2 players - 3.75 big bets)

river: T64Q7 (3-flush only)

vil5: checks

vil8: checks

vil5 shows: 44

vil8: folds (villain may have had tp+)

Analysis:

My LHE knowledge probably is inaccurate, but considering it's early position, 44 is a bit loose. It smells more like a NLHE player that would open raise most small pairs irregardless of position. Small pairs have less value in LHE due to less implied odds when hitting set. It's more appropriate for mid-late position open steals though.

Also, even with turn flush completion and both villains not horribly short, it seems like it's more bet/call on turn than check.

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LHE - 1 hand later

both players have ~15000 in chips (8+ big bets)

hero dealt on button: KQo

folds to vil5

vil5: raises

folds to hero

hero: raises

sb/bb: folds

vil5: calls

(2 players - 6.5 small bets)

flop: 732 rainbow

vil5: checks

hero: bets

vil5: raises

hero: calls

(2 players - 5.25 big bets)

turn: 732 7 rainbow

vil5: bets

hero: folds

Analysis:

Hero doesn't have great LHE knowledge...

Preflop: Hero thought villain was a bit aggressive opening small pairs in early position. Hero isolated/3-bet to gain initiative.

Flop: Hero c-bet seems fine and suspect calling check/raise is fine since there are 9 bets in and hero has likely 2 live overs. Villain's range seems to be overpairs (8-J) that didn't 4-bet preflop.

Turn: Should hero peel here? Equity doesn't look too great and there may not be much if any fold equity.

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LHE - next hand

hero dealt in CO: KJs

vil5: raises

vil7: calls

2 folds

hero: calls

sb: calls

bb: calls

(5 players - 10 small bets)

flop: Q85 two tone (hero has no flush draw)

hero folds to bet from vil 6

Analysis:

Preflop: With so many cold calls, this seemed ok to flat IP.

Flop: Standard fold with just 1 over card on flop.

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Hero's stack at break: 8900

Limit: 1500/3000 (blinds: 800/1500)

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LO8:

hero dealt on button: AKQJ rainbow

vil5: raises

vil8: calls

hero: folds

Analysis:

In a cash game, this is a standard call.

As a short stack in an MTT, it's debatable to call a 1-way hand preflop, even though it's high strength is decent (not great since there's no suit) and it's likely a multi-way pot.

There's definitely MTT literature that says a limit MTT is like a cash game, even as a short stack. But, most literature/videos seem to indicate otherwise.

The fold may appear to be nitty, but it's about avoiding investing a huge portion of stack in a likely multiway pot that has better chance of hero bust.

Also, being a short stack in a limit MTT isn't as bad because hero can snag some extra bets from players "who call for small bet preflop/3rd street, then fold when they miss and forfeiting an extra bet).

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In the interim, seat 4 (Bobby) was super-short and almost out of the MTT. But, he managed to get half of a stud/8 pot, then scooped some big pots in LHE/LO8 and is somewhat comfortable chip stack wise.

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hero's stack entering razz: 5100 @ 2000/4000 limit (500 ante)

unfortunately, hero was bringin 2x to start razz

Hero's stack = 3100

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Razz:

Hero's stack: 1600 after ante

(Hero does not remember all up cards and suits, but approximated there was only 1-2 live <= 8 cards)

hero: (2h 3c) | 4s

vil2: (Xx Xx) | Tx

vil3: (Xx Xx) | 3x

vil4: (Xx Xx) | 4h

vil5: (Xx Xx) | 9x

vil6: (Xx Xx) | Jx

bring: (Xx Xx)| Qx

vil8: (Xx Xx) | 7x

bring: brings-in

vil8: folds

hero: completes (all in)

2 folds

vil4: calls

others fold:

hero: (2h 3c) | 4s

vil4: (2d Ts) | 4h

hero: (2h 3c) | 4s 7d 3c 4d

vil4: (2d Ts) | 4h 9d js kd

vil4 reveals 7th first, then hero

vil4: (2d Ts) | 4h 9d js kd (8h)

hero: (2h 3c) | 4s 7d 3c 4d (Ks)

Analysis:

Hindsight 20-20, it would have been better to see a fold and take it down uncontested. But this was the next best thing.

Villain made right play by calling with 2 wheel cards seems good too (plus a duplicate). It's unlikely other villains call because of their paint door cards.

4500 + 2100 + 2100 = 8700

2100/8700 = ~24.13% equity

Generally, villain "out-4th street" other player in HU spot 25% of time IIRC (8 or lower that doesn't pair), ignoring reverse implied odds/getting wheel but villain also gets wheel and staying in the hand. Equity wise, villain has enough to call. If there's 2 other players, it's (obviously) much harder to peel well (and other players don't peel well).

PPT Simulation:

http://propokertools.com/simulations/unrolled?d=q7j93t&g=rz&h1=234734k&h2=2t49jk8&s=generic

Unrolled Razz Simulation ?

3rd Street 5,383,327,950 trials (Exhaustive)

dead cards: q7j93t

Hand Equity Wins Ties

234 69.37% 3,722,641,213 23,377,397

2t4 30.63% 1,637,309,340 23,377,397

4th Street 55,213,620 trials (Exhaustive)

dead cards: q7j93t

Hand Equity Wins Ties

2347 84.92% 46,840,277 98,700

2t49 15.08% 8,274,643 98,700

5th Street 353,430 trials (Exhaustive)

dead cards: q7j93t

Hand Equity Wins Ties

23473 79.80% 281,989 66

2t49j 20.20% 71,375 66

6th Street 1,122 trials (Exhaustive)

dead cards: q7j93t

Hand Equity Wins Ties

234734 61.32% 688 0

2t49jk 38.68% 434 0

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Hero out in 48th of 174, 20 places pay.

Thoughts:

The field seemed to be rather soft, but there were definitely some tougher players scattered throughout the field.

Hero's still sad to have missed the PLO8 MTT. After talking with most players, they also believed the field was soft. (It was a $365 PLO8 MTT with 188 runners.)

UnknownName3's Blog

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Travel Summary To Date (through Feb. 2013)

Saturday, February 16, 2013

365 HORSE MTT at Palm Beach Kennel Club

Thursday, February 14, 2013

2013 WSOP Schedule Release Thoughts

Sunday, February 10, 2013

Reflection - HORSE Preparation

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