Saturday, June 30, 2012

1-2-5 PLO8 Cash Game @ Venetian

Venetian runs a 1-2 PLO8 with 5 bringin. (Straddles as UTG or button = 10). Max buyin = 1000. Hero decided to play this after meeting up with friend playing 600 NLHE MTT.

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1st hand:
about 20 hands into session

reads:
seat 1 - saw chasing naked nut 32 low and called it down; seemed to have high VPIP
seat 2 - "bugs" - for a little bit; played lots of PLO8 events
seat 3 – a friend from a lot of PLO8 MTTs for a little bit, then PS person
seat 4 - hero

hero did mississippi straddle on button

Effective stacks: 1k (200bb @ 5 bring in)
Reads:
UTG Villain seemed fishy and chased naked low.

preflop:
Hero: dealt aa44 (a4 suited)
hero had button straddle
3 limpers
Hero: raised pot to 50
hero raised pot when 3 players called straddle

(4 players to flop - 200/40bb in pot)
A3J rainbow
checks to hero
hero bets: 150
utg: calls
everyone else folds

(2 players - 500/100bb in pot)
A3J 7 (two tone)
utg: checks
hero: bets 300
utg: calls

(2 players - 1100 in pot/220bb)
A3J 7 4 (no flush on river)
utg: bets AI for (500)
hero: tanks/calls

villain: shows 33xx (no low)
hero: wins pot

Analysis:
Flop: Standard
Turn: It might be a little marginal as it brings a low (but no straights/flushes), but still getting value from tons of high hands.
After talking with friend about it, villain's continuing range could have some 24xx, but more likely lots of high hands (a7/aj, etc...)
River: was a tank/call. The pot was so huge that even if villain has low, hero doesn't have to be right a huge amount of time (~33%).
The only "straight" that got there was a gut shot (245x) wrap, which was not a huge part of calling range.

PPT: It looks like it's actually an easier call.
Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation ?
5,700 trials (Exhaustive)
board: Ad 3h Js 7s 4d
Hand  Equity      Scoops      Wins Hi     Ties Hi     Wins Lo     Ties Lo
33, aj, a2:ss, 245      42.89%      862   862   0     4,028 0
ahas4c4h    57.11%      1,672 4,838 0     0     0

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2nd hand:
villain seemed to be playing really loose, but sounded like he understood the game AFAIK.

Effective stacks: 1k (200bb @ 5 bring in)
hero: dealt aj53 with no flush draw.

(2 players - $40/8bb)
Js 2x 6s 3x Qs
Hero: bets ($30/6bb)
Villain: calls
 
(2 players - 100/20bb)
Js 2x 6s 3x
hero checks
villain bets: $75 (15bb)
hero: calls

 (2 players - 250/50bb)
Js 2x 6s 3x Qs
hero: checks
villain: checks
villain: J3HH no spades

hero gets 3/4

Analysis:
Flop: Betting with TPTK tptk + nld to price out other hands with less equity and get money from villain who likely is equity underdog.
Turn: It might be close to bet/call versus check/call. The 3's a counterfeit card and hero likely has best high hand + 2nd nut low.
Thinking back, only really gutshots get there on turn. Hero probably should have just continued aggression.
River: Labored and thought it through before checking. There's arguments for bet/calling, bet/folding, and check/calling.
20:20 hindsight - maybe it's slightly better to donk bet/call here.

bet/call - This could be the best option as hero is rarely getting scooped. This may get value from many hands which hero could scoop (like: A5J, A53, etc...)
bet/call - problem: Hero calling raise when likely only raised by flushes. It’s tougher because guessing to see if hero's low is good enough (likely it is good, unless villain has something like a34 with spades).
bet/fold - If hero assumes villain will only raise nut flush + low...this seems kinda spewy b/c hero may fold 1/2 of pot.
check/call – This allows villain to continue bluff; Also, rarely getting scooped (a4 w/ flush or rare 2 pair/set). But, hero’s not sure if villain calls worse more often.

Villain mentions that after seeing me hero call earlier (in 1st hand), he didn't think I'd fold if he had bet.

Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: Js 2x 6s 3x
Hand  Equity      Scoops      Wins Hi     Ties Hi     Wins Lo     Ties Lo
a3, jj, j6, a$w$w:ss, a4      46.49%      86,126      254,616     20,211      267,920      50,479
ac jh 3s 5d 53.51%      114,518     325,173     20,211      281,601     50,479

Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation ?
54,369 trials (Exhaustive)
board: Js 2x 6s 3x Qs
Hand  Equity      Scoops      Wins Hi     Ties Hi     Wins Lo     Ties Lo
a3, jj, j6, a$w$w:ss, a4      55.24%      10,740      31,845      1,020 26,022      3,369
ac jh 3s 5d 44.76%      5,166 21,504      1,020 24,978      3,369

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Hero drove to Rio, but 1-2 Big "O" games didn't seem that good.

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