15k starting chips with 25/25 blinds and 40 min. levels with reentry
hero preregistered night before
was moved to table with lots of players (some recognizable)
2 - seen at various MTTs
maybe weak/tight (hard to say)
only time i had seen him bet was with nut flush/nut low
4 - hole seemed to know what they were doing
(was involved in AI hand when check/called AI with AA4 xxx) against aggro NLHE fish in seat 5
5
NLHE fish (admitted)
wide hand range selection
6
hero
7
older/tighter guy
nut peddler?
played in PLO8 MTT possibly previously
8
eventually determined he seemed to be NLHE player
9 also dealer
10 (when changed to 10 handed to allow late registrations)
british person
had 4 different glass "acxe" card protectors
British
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3 limpers
hero completed in small blind with (A2)(JT) ds.
(150 in pot)
flop: 874 rainbow
hero checks
1 person bets 3/4 PSB
2 others call
hero calls
(550 in pot)
turn: 8747
hero checks
(person who led flop) - bets about pot
everyone folds
analysis:
Check/calling flop bet is standard. It's very likely hero gets quartered (although super unlikely hero gets 6th), plus hero has some scoop outs.
However, with 4 players in pot, it's totally standard to call as hero gets chips back.
Turn is a standard fold as the wrong draw completes.
Although there's a chance that hero's chopping villain's boat/7xxx, there's no low counterfeit protection and may not scoop for high even if hero hits gutter.
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hero raised utg+2 with 6432 (3s2s)
folds to sb
sb: calls
bb: folds
2 players to flop:
Qx 7h 5h
villain donk leads into hero
hero folds
analysis:
Balancing play to raise with 3 wheel cards + 6. A limp easily could be more worthwhile, but more preference to steal blinds at a likely nitty table.
There's some merit w/ calling with a non-nut wrap and 3rd nut low draw, but it seemed hard to believe hero's in good shape here very often unless villain donk led naked sets/q7xx w/ no lows.
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Hero dealt: Ah Kh Th 3x
1 limper
MP (Hero): raised to 250
Button: calls
Sb: calls
limper: calls
(3 players – 800 in pot)
flop: qj3 (rainbow; hero has no bdfd)
sb: led for pot
hero should have raised, but opted to fold.
everyone else folded.
analysis:
If repeating, hero should (95% time) raised/got all in and flipped.
It's really nitty not to raise/get it in w/ wrap + bdfd + pair. At this point, everyone's 200bb though. But ultimately, it’s not enough of reason to err on the side of less variance here.
Another reason to take a flip: it's a reentry MTT.
Low justifications for not gambling:
It could be justified that there's better edges later in the PLO8 MTT where there's "no risk" due to lock hand freeroll...
There were a couple soft spots at my table.
(a unique quality of PLO8 MTTs)
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Hero limped behind 1 limper w/ kx 5d 3d 2h
(3 players – 350 in pot)
Flop: 2 2d td
BB: checks
limper: checks
checked to hero
hero led ~2/3 pot
everyone folded
Analysis:
Hero’s not quite sure if betting 1/2 psb is better with these types of textures. Some "MTT" fish might interpret that as super weak and it could be advantageous.
hero took down small pot after betting on this board and not getting called.
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hero's stack at first break: 14800 (starting stack: 15000)
blinds: 75/150
overall hero image: standard/nitty
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nlhe fish in 8 seat (hero in 6)
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twitter update:
Rifled 1/3 stack. Bb special mid set. 2 bets but min raised turn. Fold river. Board tk3 98
hero dealt: ttxx (maybe tt92)
(4-5 players limp)
limped to hero in BB
hero checks option
(5-6 players on flop: 750-900 in pot)
tk3 rainbow
hero bets flop (700)
called by seat 8
(2300 in pot)
tk3 9 rainbow
hero bets turn (2/3 pot ~1500)
hero gets minraised on turn
hero tanks, calls
(8300 in pot)
tk398
hero checks
villain bets (~5000)
hero tanks/folds
Analysis:
Pot sizes are approximate.
To be honest, villain is repping exactly qjxx with min raise.
Hero has immediate odds (and possibly good implied odds) to call min-raise to boat up.
Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: tk39
Hand Equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
qj 73.12% 433,216 433,216 10,963 0 0
tt 26.88% 155,821 155,821 10,963 0 0
Hero couldn't really bluff river though.
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twitter update:
And another 2000 gone. Bluffed on 398qq. Both flush draws on turn but q missed both flush draws. Got bluff check raised.
Same villain as previous hand.
hero dealt: (A2)(74)
folded to hero in CO
small blind: calls
(1000 on flop)
flop: 398 (hero has 7 high flush draw)
sb: checks
hero decides to check behind
(1000 on turn)
turn: 398Q (hero has both flush draws on turn)
sb: leads for about 2/3 pot
hero: tanks/calls
(2200 on turn)
398QQ (hero both flush draws on turn)
sb: checks
hero: bets 1400
sb: min raises
hero tanks/folds
Analysis:
Equity wise, it was a huge mistake not to jam the turn. 52% favorite!
In retrospect, more thought about my equity should have happened instead of gut "blindly thinking" and calling donk bet.
Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation ?
71,040 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 3h 9d 8h qd
Hand Equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
ah 2h 7d 4d 52.49% 26,469 26,469 0 34,560 0
qjt 47.51% 22,935 44,571 0 0 0
River was way unexpected to get min c/r. Luckily, it was easy to fold in this spot as villain has qxxx at minimum.
---------------
hero's stack: ~7000
hero called in raised pot
hero: dealt AKJ5 (A5)
TAGgy competent PLO8 player raises in UTG+2
2 calls
hero calls
sb calls
(5 to flop: 4500 in pot)
flop:
j32 rainbow
1 check
PFR: checks
NLHE player bets close to pot
hero raises all in
2 folds
PFR: tanks, calls AI
NLHE player: 33xx
PFR: AA4x
hero: AKJ5
J3275
PLO8 player scoops
hero is out
Analysis:
Jamming here is standard w/ SPR = 2. Assuming villain's bet/call range is 2p+, hero is likely favorite as villain's range is so wide that any low might be good.
Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation ?
71,040 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 3h 9d 8h qd
Hand Equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
ah 2h 7d 4d 52.49% 26,469 26,469 0 34,560 0
qjt 47.51% 22,935 44,571 0 0 0
Edit · Link · 2+2 · Deuces Cracked · LeggoPoker
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Summary:
busted around 3:30PM
~150/181 runners
