Variance or Leaks? Maybe/Maybe Not

A week ago, I was this close to being a "rakeback" pro overall at Merge...that was before the last 48 hours where I've put in a massive 6-8 hour session of PLO & PLO8.

1. I'm trying to make a concerted effort to improve my PLO game.
2. My PLO8 game hasn't been too good either...it's been ok.
[At some point, I'd like to play/improve my NLHE game, but that doesn't look that promising at the moment.]

Here's hoping I can fix leaks and can get on the right side of variance soon.

LV Trip 2011 - Summary (tl;dr)

overall:
1. It was great to hang out/meet up with various poker players I've kept in contact and/or met on previous trips (LV 2010, NO/AC 2010, etc...)
2. I met a large number of PLO8 players in both an MTT and cash game setting.
3. I played in my first WSOP event (1.5k PLO8) and felt i was decently +EV.
4. Stud/8 MTTs at the Golden Nugget is about super rare moments. This year: I got all in on 5th street and villain was drawing dead.
5. I didn't really play any mixed games at all :(
6. Odd numbered tourneys on my schedule seemed to do well overall from both a mental and playing perspective. Even numbered tourneys were hit and miss.
7. I have some MTT aspects to work on though especially in PLO8.
8. PLO8 and Big "O" cash games: My first experience playing Big "O" and didn't feel too overmatched. PLO8 was decent play on my part and running well.
9. Roaming photographers seem to float around and take photos at the WSOP. Photos are really expensive ($50 for original, $20 for ~8.5x11).
10. The "WSOP Photostore" (http://www.wsop.com/photostore) has super small tiny thumbnails (96 x 145 pixel) of (almost) every player. If I am adept at decrypting flash, I might be able to snag bigger photos.

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MTTs

6/25 230
6/26 350
6/27 560
6/28 200
6/30 1500
7/1 560
total: 3400

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cash games - about 30-40 hours

wednesday
.75 hours @ 5/5 plo8 = -5bb

thursday
.5 hours @ 5/5 plo8 = -50bb

friday
1 hr @ 5/5 plo8 = +60bb
2.5 hrs @ 1/2 big o w/ 5 straddle = -80bb

saturday
2.25 hours @ 1/2 big o w/ 5 straddle = -40bb
2 hours @ 5/5 plo8 = +150bb

sunday
1 hour @ 5/5 plo8 = -20bb
2 hours @ 1/2 big o w/ 5 straddle = -7bb

total
plo8: +135bb
big o: -127bb

7-3-2011 5-5 PLO8 and 1-2 "Big O" Cash Game Session Night 3

7/3/2011 - Sunday Cash Game Session

5-5 PLO8
1 - Lagish - played lots of PLO hands but seemed to understand relative hand value strength for PLO Hi
*2 - Greg T.
3 - hero
4 - at first, guy who just wanted to gamble and leave
5 - (quiet personality, solid 3-6 reg from brazil)
6
7 - talkative guy but not sure of skill set
8 - unknown
9 - tight older person

peeled with a24q (no suit) in bb against a pfr

flop: 532 2 spades
check/check flop
turn: 532 k (2 spades)
check/check turn
river: 532k5 (2 spades)

hero leads kinda smallish (60% pot)

hero scoops with straight

Analysis:
Hero can/probably should lead on turn as a4xx can get value and not necessarily get stacked.
There is some concern hero's in a bad quartering spot so hero did not necessarily want to get stack in against 2 players.
(esp. a4xx with spades and/or a46) are such small parts of range, but are a concern.

Perhaps hero assumed players were somewhat competent and wouldn't be getting it in w/o 46xx+

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multiway w/ seat 7 and seat 5 (seat 6 empty)

I don't remember the exact board, but it was a high board and was devoid of flush/straight draws
ex) K94J9

hero is OOP in sb with awxx (maybe like a3xx no suits)
hero checks
5: checks
9: checks

check/call (3rd player folds - seat 9)
hero: checks
5: bets 2/3 pot
9: folds
hero: calls

hero donk led river, tried to bluff when 9 hits river
hero: bluffs river (80% pot sized bet)
5: calls

hero: shows ace high
5: called with top 2 pair

Analysis: It wasn't the worst play to donk lead a paired river, but there may not have been too many 9s in hero's range. Villain's 2 pair made it an easy call as well.
Hero was obviously trying to fold out a number of better hands.

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1-3 Big "O"
overall game seemed kinda nitty

only hand of significance:

UTG+2 - limps (100bb effective stack)

hero isos limper on the button
AQ853 (2 suit to ace)

flop: ak5 2 diamonds
villain: checks
hero cbet in position
villain calls

turn:
ak5 7? 2 diamonds (it could have been an 8)
villain: check
hero: check

river:
ak5 7 j? 2 diamonds (J was a paint card)
villain: donk bets river
hero: call river bet on end

Analysis:
In a heads up situation, I'm not sure if I can get villain to fold enough.
top and bottom + bad low draw isn't really that strong of a hand especially with everyone with 5 cards. River calls seems ok b/c villain's opponent needs to have

7-2-2011 5-5 PLO8 and 1-2 "Big O" Cash Game Session Night 2

5/5 PLO8
hero was dealt this hand in late position and called another person's pfr
a3tt (2 suit to ace)
t82kt

2 players (seat 2 and 7) - call both streets

11bb on flop
31bb on turn

[hero has 20bb behind]

Analysis:
Hero could have avoided 'balancing' and betted more on the flop/turn.

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This hand just shows that "freerolls" are bad. Sometimes, you really need to "fold the nuts"
It's extremely applicable in PLO High as well.

2: [~275bb deep]
6: [~300bb deep]
7: [~230bb deep] - probably inexperienced

J89 rainbow
2: checks
6: bets
7: calls
2: raises
6: calls
7: repots
2: folds

6 - KQT3 rainbow
7 - AQTT

J89xT

Analysis:
With AQ and no redraw, 7 has to slow down and not get his stack in w/ naked nut high and no redraws

7-1-2011 5-5 PLO8 and 1-2 "Big O" Cash Game Session Night 1

5/5 PLO8
300-uncapped buyin.

PLO8 (and PLO) games allow Mississippi straddles on the button. I sometimes chose to do it, allowing action to start at the SB.

short session (1 hr)
CO - just moved to my table (b/c other game broke)

CO opens
I repot to 13bb w/ Ah As 3c 4d

Flop: Kh Qh 9s
CO: check
hero: check

Turn: Kh Qh 9s 6c
CO: bets 1/2 psb
hero: calls


River: Kh Qh 9s 6c 4h
CO: bets pot
hero: thinks for a little bit, then repots all in (40bb to win ~100bb)
CO: asks for chip count, then folds

Analysis:
Hero most times should have cbet the flop, tbh. However, it's a board that doesn't hit the standard PLO8's 3b range (AAW*) unless i have nfd.

Hero was calling and looking to bet any river heart. Since there's no low on board, it's a good play.
If it's not a heart, hero can reeval river action
Note: An overpair has almost no equity.

When heart comes on river and villain pots into me, he's repping a flush.
I repot all in repping nut flush using PLO high's "naked ace bluff"

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I move over to play some Big "O" (my first experience). It's played as a 1-3 w/ 5 bringin.
$100-500 min/max buyin.
Mississippi straddles on the button are allowed ranging from $5-10.


1-3 "Big O"
3 potted with AA38Q ds

~48bb preflop after hero 3betted pre (4 players)

approximate flop: 48J (1 of my suits)

hero: checks
another player: checks
short stack: shoves 15-20 bb all in
everyone calls, including hero

Analysis:
1. Hero peeled flop w/ backdoor flush/2nd nut low draw (1/6 pot bet all in with 4 players)
2. hero had to fold when didn't turn my backdoor flush draw on the turn and likely hoping for 2 just to maybe not get quartered


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1 other hand involved hero with AKQJ4 (no suit) on button straddle and only BB is in pot.

limped pot (2 players: bb and button straddle)

4KT83 rainbow
bb: checks
Hero bets flop (approx. 80%)
bb: calls

turn:
bb: check
hero: bets turn (approx. 80%)
bb: calls

river:
bb: bets pot
hero: tank/calls

Analysis:
Flop and turn: Cbet seemed ok and gets value from straight draws, etc…
On river: Hero is hoping to get money back. It puts 3 low on board and hero is hoping to get to showdown with bad 2 pair/no low. There weren’t really any straight combos that got there and only a low really got there.
Fortunately, villain showed naked low (and a pair for high) and it’s a chop.